Brexit: What Happens Now?
MPs got their say on Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Tuesday and rejected the negotiated agreement by 432 votes to 202. The is the biggest government defeat in history. Mrs May now has three working days to come up with a new plan, but it is feared the defeat could result in a no-deal Brexit. What will happen with Brexit next and what does a no-deal scenario mean for you?
What happens with Brexit next?
There are five key options:
A no-deal Brexit means the UK will leave the EU without an agreement in place.
A new deal would involve the Government going back to the EU to renegotiate the Prime Minister’s deal.
But the EU has stated multiple times they will not make any changes to the current deal, only clarifications.
However, time is running out for this option and would most likely need the UK’s exit date, which is on March 29, 2019, to be pushed back.
Labour has said if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament, they will push for a new election.
In this scenario, UK citizens eligible to vote will hit the polls and elect a new Government.
This, as with the “new deal” option could also require an extension of Article 50.
For another referendum to be triggered, the Government must agree it needs to happen and would require to vote in support of this in the Commons.
For now, this appears unlikely as the majority of MPs would not support a new referendum on Brexit.
The Prime Minister is also against this option.
No confidence vote
Labour has said they would call for a formal no-confidence vote in the Government if the deal got rejected.
If the Government loses the vote one of three things could happen.
If there is a clear alternative Government Theresa May can resign and someone else takes over as Prime Minister, or the Government can continue with modified policies.
If there is no clear alternative Government and they are unable to win a confidence vote within 14 days, a general election will be called.
The earliest date for this to happen would be after 25 working days.
What does no deal mean for you?
The default position right now is a no-deal Brexit. This means the UK will leave the EU immediately on March 29, 2019, with no agreement in place, unless action is taken.
No-deal Brexit is not a preferred option in Parliament but is a possible outcome if no agreement can be made among the politicians.
A no-deal leads to uncertainty for businesses and life for citizens in Britain in general.
There are currently 1.3 million Britons leaving in EU countries and 3.7 million EU citizens living in Britain.
The no-deal scenario gives Britain the right to set its controls on immigration by EU nationals and the EU could do the same to Britons living in EU countries.
In terms of trade, the UK would no longer be bound by EU rules but would have to face EU’s external tariffs.
A no-deal Brexit would also mean the controversial border issue between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland would remain unresolved.
Britain could face pressure to enforce immigration controls and customs on the border.
What I think will happen?
It’s my assumption that May will now break this bill down into small bits of legislation in an attempt to get it through Parliament. In this form, the deal is more palatable for Labour from an ideological perspective and therefore is likely to negate the no-deal fallout somewhat.